A big story compressed into three hours of television means something gets squeezed out – so you can watch the excellent BBC series Mr Bates vs the Post Office (released in Australia in February 2024) without realising that expert evidence played a key role, or that the evidence of one expert was subject to very severe criticism.
Background
Each month UK Post Office sub-postmasters (effectively franchisees, the SPMs) were required to input details of stock and cash on hand into an accounting system called Horizon, owned and operated by an IT company, Fujitsu.
Those actual figures were compared to the amounts that the Horizon system calculated as expected balances. If the actuals were less than the expected balances, Horizon identified the difference as a shortfall, which SPMs were contractually required to make up – presumably on the assumption that a shortfall reflected either a cash withdrawal from the till, or a sale that had not been correctly processed through the till.
Some of the SPMs were prosecuted for theft because they did not (or could not) pay the shortfall amounts that Horizon calculated. Some of the SPMs were prosecuted for false accounting because they entered incorrect details into Horizon, to reduce the amount that they would be required to contribute.
Affected SPMs formed an action group, They argued that Horizon was not a robust and universally accurate system, and that it produced incorrect information which should not have been relied upon, especially for criminal prosecutions, and initiated a class action against the Post Office
Expert Evidence issues
Bates & Ors v the Post Office Ltd (No 6: Horizon Issues) [2019] EWHC 3408 (QB) was a separate hearing, dealing solely with the operation and functionality of the Horizon system itself, and so the role of IT experts was critical to the outcome.
Each expert witness had substantial industry experience, and significant experience as an expert. They prepared separate reports, supplementary reports, and then worked together to produce four joint reports.
“Shadow Experts”
The Post Office cost budget allowed £500,000 for experts who, notably, were instructed directly by the Post Office – not their solicitors or counsel – and who would not actually be giving evidence.
The Court said that direct instruction by a party was “a highly unusual situation,” and that estimated costs “were extraordinarily high, unreasonable and disproportionate,” which “did not, on the face of it, appear to be properly recoverable sums in the litigation.”
Direct Communication with the trial judge
The Post Office Expert prepared a second supplementary report, which he sent direct to the court, by email, after the trial had commenced.
The Court said that it was “extremely unusual, if not verging upon unheard of” for an expert witness to communicate directly with the trial judge rather than through the solicitors that engaged them.
Although experts have a positive obligation to prepare a supplementary report if they change their opinions, in this case the Court held that the report was not due to a change in opinion, but rather an attempt “to bolster” existing conclusions.
Criticism of the Post Office Expert
The Court was not “universally critical” of the Post Office Expert. It was careful to note that he had performed “a substantial amount of detailed analysis in his two reports” and played his part in significantly increasing “the overall knowledge that the court had.” It recorded that he had also “discovered some bugs himself…[and] also took a sensible and considered view of some elements of the documentation,” and that his agreement in the Joint Reports had “saved a considerable amount of court time.”
Nonetheless, there was severe criticism of the Post Office Expert:
- His methodology was “wholly flawed…and obviously so,” using reasoning that was “entirely circular.”
- His analysis was “so riddled with plainly insupportable assumptions as to make it of no evidential value. It is the mathematical or arithmetic equivalent of stating that, given there are 3 million sets of branch accounts, and given there are so many sets of branch accounts of which no complaint is made, the Horizon system is mostly right, most of the time. It is a little more sophisticated than that, but not by very much.”
- He “took a partisan view of the evidence of fact…an obvious preferring of the evidence of fact of the party instructing him, added, in this case, to a refusal or failure to accept further evidence of fact to the contrary which subsequently emerged.”
- He relied “heavily” upon information from a Fujitsu executive whose involvement in the report “was simply hidden…[without] a note or summary of all the information that” the executive had provided.
Outcome
The Claimants were successful in that decision, the last of the reported judgements.
In 2019 the Post Office agreed to pay compensation of £58m to the claimants. In 2021, the UK Government initiated a statutory inquiry by a retired high court judge, which is still underway. In January 2024 the Government announced an intention to pass legislation to squash the SPM convictions, and passed legislation to set up a compensation scheme for the affected SPMs.